After another exciting day viewing property it's becoming apparent that asking prices have dropped around 15% in the last 6 weeks or so and, in the areas we are looking at, pretty much back to 2001 levels.
A few of the houses we've seen have actually sold now and I suspect the price achieved is probably less than the advertised reduced price. The agents tell me that sales are picking up which is probably true but only for houses that have very realistic prices.
It'll be interesting to see the Land Registry information for these sold houses to see the actual price they got.
In the face of a worsening economc situation I can't any reason for prices to increase any time soon. If you're buying now it's a 50/50 chance as to whether you'll have paid too much.
I'd say it's a cast iron certainty that interest rates will rise soon which will depress prices still further.
A useful web site I've just found is www.mouseprice.com
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Friday, March 27, 2009
Another Reason to hate Estate Agents (and Bankers)
There seems to be the emergence of a nice little scam by the Estate Agents and their mates...
(This is first hand experience and not an anecdotal tale by the way)
A modern 4 bedroom house appears on Rightmove at a good price at the weekend.
The next day we ring the agent who a) is very offhand b) fails to mention it's repossesed c) can't possibly arrange a viewing until Saturday despite having the keys.
Now, apart from anything else, I find it extremely improbable that an agent is so busy they can't arrange a viewing until the weekend.
On late Friday afternoon the agent rings and tells us that they have had an offer which has been accepted and solicitors instructed so we are wasting our time unless we can offer more and are in a position to proceed...
Now as it happens we have the required dosh sat in the bank and we had already made appointments to see other property in the area so we said we'd view anyway....
Which must have been a surprise as they then had to reschedule the appointment.
Smells a bit to me.
Just might be they have a mate who has been been tipped the wink?
Everybody is happy except the original owner who's going to be liable for any shortfall.
And me of course.
(This is first hand experience and not an anecdotal tale by the way)
A modern 4 bedroom house appears on Rightmove at a good price at the weekend.
The next day we ring the agent who a) is very offhand b) fails to mention it's repossesed c) can't possibly arrange a viewing until Saturday despite having the keys.
Now, apart from anything else, I find it extremely improbable that an agent is so busy they can't arrange a viewing until the weekend.
On late Friday afternoon the agent rings and tells us that they have had an offer which has been accepted and solicitors instructed so we are wasting our time unless we can offer more and are in a position to proceed...
Now as it happens we have the required dosh sat in the bank and we had already made appointments to see other property in the area so we said we'd view anyway....
Which must have been a surprise as they then had to reschedule the appointment.
Smells a bit to me.
Just might be they have a mate who has been been tipped the wink?
Everybody is happy except the original owner who's going to be liable for any shortfall.
And me of course.
Xperia Update
An update on the Xperia (literally)
With the customary reluctance I decided I might as well experience the upgrade the phone process....
It's a bit more long winded than you might like. First off you go to the Sony Ericcson site and download the Update Service to your PC.
This describes what you need to do, the first step of which is to back up your phone as the update destroys all your settings, downloaded programs etc. i.e. it returns it back to the state when you took it out of the box (but with the new firmware).
What it doesn't tell you is how to back up your phone...
The Xperia doesn't include any back up software so a quick trawl around the net found a couple of solutions. But before you can use these you need to install the ActiveSync software from the CD that comes with the Xperia.
I decided to try out the Sprite Backup software (10 day free trial). This seemed to back up to the PC OK (but note it does shut down the phone while it does it so you won't be getting any calls).
Before running the Update Service you need to make sure the phone is fully charged, remove the sim from the phone and turn off the wireless connection.
Then run the Update Service. It decided that new software was available for the X1 with a name of X1i vfe uk cdf 1215 0285. It appears to detect which supplier you are using and select the appropriate download. You then follow the instructions to reboot the phone ready for the update. This involves holding down 2 buttons which I fund a bit of a faff.
The Update then downloads the file from the web which took around 15 minutes, then uploads it to the phone (during this part of the process a progess bar is displayed on the X1).
The phone then reboots and you have to align the screen and set the date and time. It then installs the software updates which takes a few minutes (couple of new games etc).
After this, you need to close down and re-insert the Sim. The Rom is now shown as R2AA 007.
The next step was to restore the backup which sadly didn't want to play. As there wasn't much set up on the phone I couldn't be bothered to pursue this but I think in future I'd buy a memory card and make sure everything is saved to that instead.
Incidentally the wireless still doesn't work...
By the way the Tweak for the Xperia solved the irritating "backlight going off during a call" problem http://www.cliffords.nu . You can also download Remote Desktop for the X1 from http://andrewblock.net/?p=85 . Thanks guys.
With the customary reluctance I decided I might as well experience the upgrade the phone process....
It's a bit more long winded than you might like. First off you go to the Sony Ericcson site and download the Update Service to your PC.
This describes what you need to do, the first step of which is to back up your phone as the update destroys all your settings, downloaded programs etc. i.e. it returns it back to the state when you took it out of the box (but with the new firmware).
What it doesn't tell you is how to back up your phone...
The Xperia doesn't include any back up software so a quick trawl around the net found a couple of solutions. But before you can use these you need to install the ActiveSync software from the CD that comes with the Xperia.
I decided to try out the Sprite Backup software (10 day free trial). This seemed to back up to the PC OK (but note it does shut down the phone while it does it so you won't be getting any calls).
Before running the Update Service you need to make sure the phone is fully charged, remove the sim from the phone and turn off the wireless connection.
Then run the Update Service. It decided that new software was available for the X1 with a name of X1i vfe uk cdf 1215 0285. It appears to detect which supplier you are using and select the appropriate download. You then follow the instructions to reboot the phone ready for the update. This involves holding down 2 buttons which I fund a bit of a faff.
The Update then downloads the file from the web which took around 15 minutes, then uploads it to the phone (during this part of the process a progess bar is displayed on the X1).
The phone then reboots and you have to align the screen and set the date and time. It then installs the software updates which takes a few minutes (couple of new games etc).
After this, you need to close down and re-insert the Sim. The Rom is now shown as R2AA 007.
The next step was to restore the backup which sadly didn't want to play. As there wasn't much set up on the phone I couldn't be bothered to pursue this but I think in future I'd buy a memory card and make sure everything is saved to that instead.
Incidentally the wireless still doesn't work...
By the way the Tweak for the Xperia solved the irritating "backlight going off during a call" problem http://www.cliffords.nu . You can also download Remote Desktop for the X1 from http://andrewblock.net/?p=85 . Thanks guys.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Sony Xperia X1
Reluctantly (obviously) I decided to upgrade my venerable Nokia Communicator because 1. it's falling apart and 2. it's a free upgrade.
Having got used to having a keyboard I went for the Sony Xperia.
Apart from the dubious battery life it's not too bad. Internet access (which is a big must) is good, Wireless essentially doesn't work (it connects but won't use the connection), GPS and Google Maps is pretty neat and saves me having to buy a sat nav. Remote Desktop (which isn't there as standard but can be downloaded) is excellent.
But for a phone it's bloody annoying.
In normal use you're going to leave the phone locked.
So you get an incoming call, Screen lights up and you can answer the call. So far so good.
But let's say you want to put the caller on hold or use the touch tone key pad?
By now the screen back light has gone out (it only stays on a few seconds and there seems to be no obvious way of changing this for the phone) and the phone is still locked.
So you need to press the power button to illuminate the screen, then 2 buttons to unlock the phone, then you can finally use the key pad.
A masterpiece of design.
Footnote : I have since found a download that lets you modify this setting and others at http://www.cliffords.nu/ . I'll let you know if it works..
Having got used to having a keyboard I went for the Sony Xperia.
Apart from the dubious battery life it's not too bad. Internet access (which is a big must) is good, Wireless essentially doesn't work (it connects but won't use the connection), GPS and Google Maps is pretty neat and saves me having to buy a sat nav. Remote Desktop (which isn't there as standard but can be downloaded) is excellent.
But for a phone it's bloody annoying.
In normal use you're going to leave the phone locked.
So you get an incoming call, Screen lights up and you can answer the call. So far so good.
But let's say you want to put the caller on hold or use the touch tone key pad?
By now the screen back light has gone out (it only stays on a few seconds and there seems to be no obvious way of changing this for the phone) and the phone is still locked.
So you need to press the power button to illuminate the screen, then 2 buttons to unlock the phone, then you can finally use the key pad.
A masterpiece of design.
Footnote : I have since found a download that lets you modify this setting and others at http://www.cliffords.nu/ . I'll let you know if it works..
Gordon Brown - A False Economy?
So what happens next?
In reality inflation is already streaking ahead despite the official figures.
Food prices continue upwards and not surprisingly business has said that prices for imported goods (i.e. just about everything) will increase substantially due to the 30% drop in the value of the pound.
Just in case you don't get it, if the importer has to pay 30% more for the product he MUST put up the price you pay by a similiar amount or loose money on everything they sell (why would you do that? You're better selling nothing than selling at a loss).
You will have noticed if you've been paying attention that there are very few adverts for consumer goods now (like big screen TV's).
So unless you work in the public sector this is what you have to look forward to
Reduced wages, if you are lucky enough to keep your job.
In reality inflation is already streaking ahead despite the official figures.
Food prices continue upwards and not surprisingly business has said that prices for imported goods (i.e. just about everything) will increase substantially due to the 30% drop in the value of the pound.
Just in case you don't get it, if the importer has to pay 30% more for the product he MUST put up the price you pay by a similiar amount or loose money on everything they sell (why would you do that? You're better selling nothing than selling at a loss).
You will have noticed if you've been paying attention that there are very few adverts for consumer goods now (like big screen TV's).
So unless you work in the public sector this is what you have to look forward to
Reduced wages, if you are lucky enough to keep your job.
Increased prices (up to 30%) for all imported goods.
Increased Council Tax (obviously)
Increased fuel bills (again)
Substantial interest rate rises very soon. GB needs to borrow so much foreign investors will need a strong incentive to lend to us. Expect to see a reduction in UK Credit rating.
Update : The Treasury failed to flog off all the Gilts offered at Auction today...
Increased Taxation. Tax is the only way the Government can pay back the money it is borrowing, especially since they have pretty much run out of things they can sell (gas, electricity, railways, nuclear power, post office, railways, PFI etc). At the same time Tax revenues from business have dropped like a stone, Banks won't be paying any tax any time soon, and the cost of unemployment benefits is rising.
House Prices continuing to fall because of reduction in real income and fear factor.
Private Pension values continue to throw themselves off a cliff.
Gordon Brown borrowing even more money in a desparate attempt to cling to power.
If you do work in the public sector, please don't complain. It really annoys the rest of us.
Get out the flares, it's back to the 70s.
(Just so you know the average wage for a nurse will be £31,974, a police constable £29,144 and a teacher £35,929)
Monday, March 09, 2009
(No) jobs for the boys
According to figures obtained under the Freedom of Information Act, 35,430 non EU IT workers were granted work permits last year.
I don't believe for one second that there aren't sufficient skilled IT staff in the UK ; they're just not at the price that employers want to pay.
I don't believe for one second that there aren't sufficient skilled IT staff in the UK ; they're just not at the price that employers want to pay.
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
The Reluctant House Buyer
The Reluctant Developer now finds himself to be also a reluctant housebuyer...
Due to family circumstances (i.e. the wife said so) we are now trying to buy a house somewhere in the South of England, well at least south of the Watford Gap....
We are in the strange position of being a cash buyer which every single person you meet tells you is a good position to be in, but I have my doubts.
Firstly there is the fear that whatever you buy now may be a worth a lot less in the future. Or alternatively, the market has bottomed and if you don't buy soon all the promised lending by the the Northern Rock and HSBC (otherwise known as pre-election bribes by Gordon Brown) will soon start pushing prices back up or at least stop them going down.
Then there's what do you offer? In a normal market we know there is a unwritten protocol where the vendor asks for a bit more than they expect to get, you offer a bit less and agree on a price in the middle.
Honour is satisfied all round.
Now it is all more complex. Fear of falling prices means that I'm tempted to offer very low ; say £200K on a £250K price and I'm nervous that is still too much. Many properties we have seen have already been reduced by similiar amounts and still aren't selling.
Viewing modern houses in areas like Swindon is overwhelming. There are hundreds of them, not to mention the unsold new build, and they all look just the same. It gets down to trying to find the one that has slightly more parking space, or a garden just a little bigger than a postage stamp.
I'm also in danger of getting in trouble with the RSPCA since using a cat as a measuring device is causing them quite a lot of injuries (but at least you get 9 goes with each cat).
Out in the more rural areas prices are still in the "you've got to be kidding" territory. We've seen a concrete prefab bungalow on a reasonable plot but next to a main road in a not particulary attractive village that is on the market for £210K reduced from £250K and all you could do with it would be to knock it down and build something else.
This is apparently what happened to the neighbouring bungalow which now has a quite nice bungalow built at a cost of £150K, on the market at £420k reduced from £460K but isn't selling either.
My guess is the average house price will drop to around 120K providing Gordon doesn't totally bankrupt us by attempting to re-inflate house prices so I think at least another 20% needs to come off current prices.
The house now on at 200K needs to be more like 160K, 250K down to 200K etc.
I'll keep you posted...
Due to family circumstances (i.e. the wife said so) we are now trying to buy a house somewhere in the South of England, well at least south of the Watford Gap....
We are in the strange position of being a cash buyer which every single person you meet tells you is a good position to be in, but I have my doubts.
Firstly there is the fear that whatever you buy now may be a worth a lot less in the future. Or alternatively, the market has bottomed and if you don't buy soon all the promised lending by the the Northern Rock and HSBC (otherwise known as pre-election bribes by Gordon Brown) will soon start pushing prices back up or at least stop them going down.
Then there's what do you offer? In a normal market we know there is a unwritten protocol where the vendor asks for a bit more than they expect to get, you offer a bit less and agree on a price in the middle.
Honour is satisfied all round.
Now it is all more complex. Fear of falling prices means that I'm tempted to offer very low ; say £200K on a £250K price and I'm nervous that is still too much. Many properties we have seen have already been reduced by similiar amounts and still aren't selling.
Viewing modern houses in areas like Swindon is overwhelming. There are hundreds of them, not to mention the unsold new build, and they all look just the same. It gets down to trying to find the one that has slightly more parking space, or a garden just a little bigger than a postage stamp.
I'm also in danger of getting in trouble with the RSPCA since using a cat as a measuring device is causing them quite a lot of injuries (but at least you get 9 goes with each cat).
Out in the more rural areas prices are still in the "you've got to be kidding" territory. We've seen a concrete prefab bungalow on a reasonable plot but next to a main road in a not particulary attractive village that is on the market for £210K reduced from £250K and all you could do with it would be to knock it down and build something else.
This is apparently what happened to the neighbouring bungalow which now has a quite nice bungalow built at a cost of £150K, on the market at £420k reduced from £460K but isn't selling either.
My guess is the average house price will drop to around 120K providing Gordon doesn't totally bankrupt us by attempting to re-inflate house prices so I think at least another 20% needs to come off current prices.
The house now on at 200K needs to be more like 160K, 250K down to 200K etc.
I'll keep you posted...
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